The Phoenix Metro housing market in 2025 was defined by normalization rather than slowdown, particularly across its high-net-worth submarkets. Inventory expanded, buyer leverage increased, and pricing dynamics reset to more sustainable levels, while demand in premium locations remained resilient. Sales activity across key luxury markets increased year over year, confirming continued absorption even as conditions became more selective. As 2026 begins, Phoenix Metro is shaping into a strategic, data-driven market where preparation and pricing accuracy matter more than urgency.
What Characterized the Phoenix Metro Real Estate Market in 2025?
Across Phoenix Metro, 2025 marked a clear transition away from compressed, seller-dominated conditions toward a more balanced and transparent market environment.
According to The Cromford Report, inventory levels across Phoenix Metro normalized throughout 2025, moving supply closer to long-term historical norms. This shift reduced urgency without eliminating demand — particularly in established, high-quality neighborhoods.
Buyer leverage increased, price growth moderated, and market behavior became more deliberate after several years of distorted conditions. Rather than signaling weakness, this recalibration reflected healthier transaction mechanics, especially within Phoenix Metro’s high-net-worth and lifestyle-driven submarkets.
How Did Sales and Inventory Trends Perform in Phoenix Metro’s High-Net-Worth Markets?
According to Compass MLS data, transaction data confirms that Phoenix Metro’s high-net-worth markets absorbed higher inventory while maintaining strong activity.
Scottsdale
Scottsdale recorded 3,047 active listings and 6,249 closed sales in 2025, compared to 5,869 closed sales in 2024. Rising sales alongside expanded inventory indicate improved market efficiency rather than buyer hesitation.
Paradise Valley
Paradise Valley — one of Phoenix Metro’s most concentrated luxury markets — posted 187 active listings and 400 closed sales in 2025, up from 343 closed sales in 2024. Despite more selective buyer behavior, year-over-year growth confirms sustained confidence in premium properties.
Phoenix Metro (overall context)
16,099 homes sold across Phoenix Metro in 2025, exceeding 15,837 sales in 2024, signaling consistent absorption as inventory conditions normalized.
According to The Cromford Report, luxury-oriented submarkets across Phoenix Metro remained materially stronger than lower-priced segments throughout 2025, reinforcing the importance of location, quality, and pricing discipline.
How Did Buyer Behavior Shift in Phoenix Metro During 2025?
Buyer behavior across Phoenix Metro became notably more deliberate in 2025.
According to The Cromford Report, buyer leverage increased across most Phoenix Metro submarkets as supply expanded. Buyers spent more time comparing properties, negotiating terms, and prioritizing long-term value over speed. This shift reduced speculative activity while strengthening demand for well-located, well-designed homes.
In Paradise Valley, Arcadia, North Scottsdale, the Biltmore area, and North Central Phoenix, buyers remained active but selective. Homes priced accurately and positioned thoughtfully continued to transact, while listings anchored to peak-market expectations experienced longer days on market.
How Did Broader Market Forces Influence Phoenix Metro in 2025?
National housing dynamics influenced Phoenix Metro, but local fundamentals shaped outcomes.
According to The Cromford Report, elevated mortgage rates throughout much of 2025 tempered affordability and reduced speculative pressure. As price growth slowed, income growth began to outpace home price appreciation, supporting longer-term affordability improvements.
Inventory normalization occurred unevenly. While Phoenix Metro overall saw increased supply, premium neighborhoods — including Paradise Valley, Arcadia, Biltmore, and North Scottsdale — remained comparatively insulated due to limited new construction and sustained high net worth buyer demand.
What Is Taking Shape for the Phoenix Metro Housing Market in 2026?
Early indicators suggest 2026 will be defined by balance and strategy rather than extremes.
According to The Cromford Report, Phoenix Metro inventory growth is slowing as supply and demand move closer to equilibrium. Buyer activity is stabilizing, supported by improved affordability and clearer expectations. Sellers face a narrower margin for error, with pricing accuracy, preparation, and timing playing a larger role in outcomes.
High-net-worth markets — Paradise Valley, Arcadia, North Scottsdale, the Biltmore area, are expected to remain comparatively resilient due to constrained premium inventory and continued interest from long-term and out-of-state buyers.
Is Phoenix Metro a Buyer’s Market, a Seller’s Market, or Something Else?
Phoenix Metro is best described as a strategic, balanced market, with performance varying meaningfully by price point and location.
Buyers benefit from expanded choice and negotiating leverage, while sellers who price accurately and prepare thoughtfully continue to achieve strong results — particularly in high-net-worth neighborhoods.
According to The Cromford Report, the gap between well-positioned homes and the rest of the market widened in 2025, increasing the importance of local expertise.
FAQ: Phoenix Metro Luxury Market Outlook
Did the Phoenix Metro market slow down in 2025?
No. Year-over-year sales increased across several high-net-worth Phoenix Metro submarkets despite higher inventory.
Are buyers gaining leverage in Phoenix Metro?
Yes. Expanded inventory increased buyer leverage across most Phoenix Metro submarkets.
Is demand still strong in Paradise Valley, Arcadia, and North Scottsdale?
Yes. Transaction volume and absorption trends confirm continued confidence in premium properties.
What matters most for sellers heading into 2026?
Accurate pricing, preparation, and market-specific strategy will matter more than relying on past momentum. But, make no mistake that we are seeing an increase in both listings and buyer demand.
If you’re considering buying or selling in 2026 and want to understand how these Phoenix Metro trends apply to your specific goals, I’m happy to help you think through a personalized local strategy.
