Headlines are not what they seem, let's dive into some realities.
My business partner Heather and I were chatting yesterday, specifically about the Case-Shiller report that just came out and the ensuing clickbait headlines of doom "Phoenix home prices dip as national growth slows amid buyers market, new data shows" (Phx Business Journal). The reality of living in Phoenix is that we have very long, hot summers. The housing market is seasonal and generally stops at 100 Deg in late May/early June when people either leave or melt. Houses linger on the market after that. Prices drop. Days on market extend. One look at Zillow screams out the sky is falling. This happens almost every year without exception. Case-Schiller looks backwards. The just-released report is from May to July 2025. Maybe if they looked even further back, say last Summer? They could add better context to their data.
Canadians are another headline topic. Yes, they are leaving in greater numbers than usual, but it's not a stampede. 6% of Canadian tax-address homes have been sold in the last 12 months. They represent 1.6% of all homes sold in Maricopa County. Not really a stat that will change a market.
So, what is really happening? Yes, it's a balanced market. Our listing success rate (the number of homes that go under contract and close) is 69.7%, the historic average is 69.2%. So no big headline there. The upper end of the market is supporting the lower end with a slight seller advantage, while the lower end has a slight buyer advantage. Expect around three months on the market if you're selling your home. Don't overprice it, hoping that the right person will walk down the street. They may, but if they don't, your three months could extend rather quickly. It's definitely time to get advice from your realtor. National stats make great headlines, but especially in a balanced market, all stats are hyperlocal. Case Schiller simply isn't.
